martes, 9 de diciembre de 2014

Uruguay: Inflation stable in November, 2014

In November, consumer prices rose 0.15% over the previous month, marking a seven-month low. November’s print came in well below the 0.59% increase tallied in October and undershot the 0.35% rise the markets had expected.

According to the Statistical Institute, November’s reading was driven by lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as for gas and electricity. Conversely, clothing, housing and alcoholic beverages registered higher prices compared to the previous month. 
Annual inflation remained unchanged at October’s 8.1% in November, marking the first month since March in which annual inflation was stable. Annual average inflation inched up to 9.0% in November from 8.9% in October. 
Despite remaining stable in November, inflation is still well above the Central Bank’s target range of between 3.0% and 7.0%.

The Uruguayan peso had hovered around 24.00 UYU per USD in October, and reached a low of 23.55 UYU per USD on 27 November. Since then, the local currency has gained ground, trading at 24.07 UYU per USD on 4 December.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to close the year at 8.6%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2015, panelists see inflation easing further to 8.2%, which is also unchanged from last month’s Consensus. 

Regarding the exchange rate, the panel expects the peso to trade at 24.4 UYU per USD by the end of this year. For 2015, forecasters surveyed see the peso depreciating to an exchange rate of 26.3 UYU per USD.

Source:: FOCUSEconomics

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